Gapex Gut Feel Report 22nd May 2017

USD / ZAR: 13,2172
EUR / ZAR: 14,7929
GBP / ZAR: 17,188
ZAR / JPY: 8,4251
EUR / USD: 1,1187
GBP / USD: 1,2994
USD / JPY: 111,49
Ø ZAR regains its losses
Ø Dollar under extreme pressure with Purported US/Russia relationship
Ø Moody’s to maybe downgrade
Ø SA political saga still rife
ZAR against all odds regained some of its losses even after hearing GM to leave the country and the political hype as the electioneering hots up. This week we have the SARB rate decision and a very possible Moody’s downgrade. Dollar performance continues to dominate the market with president Trumps rumours of his link to Russia. The longer these tensions and uncertainties run the weaker the dollar will get and will assist EM currencies strength. One must be aware that all the political rhetoric in SA, the reappointment of B Molefe to Eskom and the continuous looting and corruption of the state coffers, will give Moody’s ammunition to downgrade and Investors reasons to disinvest in the economy. This week will be hard to ignore the opportunity for the ZAR to test lower levels as stated due the weakening dollar but one must be prudent as SA is not out the woods yet. Market players expect the rates to remain unchanged with a slightly dovish pitch. Talking to Traders remaining long USD. Trading Range 13.00 / 13.60
Economic Data: 22nd  May

USD/ZAR Hourly Candle

This chart is some kind complex correction and all bets are off for now!

  ” I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of money at tops and bottoms.”PTJ

USD/ZAR Daily Close

This chart now appears to have a double bottom and could be headed to the R13.70 level before coming down again.

It could also be a complex correction in which case all bets are off!

“The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.” – Jesse Livermore

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