Gapex Gut Feel Report 23rd May 2017

USD / ZAR: 13,2337
EUR / ZAR: 14,8917
GBP / ZAR: 17,2001
ZAR / JPY: 8,3824
EUR / USD: 1,1245
GBP / USD: 1,2988
USD / JPY: 111,15
Ø ZAR remains strong but range bound
Ø Cosatu snubs the president and wont allow him to address their events
Ø Terror attack in UK has market edgy
Ø MPC meeting in progress on Interest rate decision
ZAR strengthens some more although inflows were small, ahead of the MPC interest rate talks this week. Market expects rates to remain unchanged with a dovish tone, as well as SARB’s leading indicators data due today, which will give us some perspective as to the domestic business cycle and whether it was affected by the axing of former Min of Fin Pravin. It has come to light he is questioning the so called “radical economic transformation” which must make the markets nervous as to the reasons and who will benefit from it. Rating agencies must be getting more concerned as to the debacle of the CEO at Eskom and the continuous ignorance and lies. Internationally, the bomb blast in UK must have the world jittery and a possible switch to safe-haven currencies and commodities could be imminent. The political situation is heating up as Cosatu snubs Pres Zuma and bars him from addressing their events and would rather have Dep Pres Ramaphosa. Talking to traders, status quo remains. Trading range 13.15-13.65
Economic Data: 23rd May
Ø SA Leading Indicators
Ø US New Home Sales m/m
Ø US Richmond Fed Manf Index

USD/ZAR Hourly Candle

This chart is some kind complex correction and all beta are off for now!

  ” I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of money at tops and bottoms.”PTJ

USD/ZAR Daily Close

This chart now appears to have a double bottom and could be headed to the R13.70 level before coming down again.

It could also be a complex correction in which case all bets are off!

“The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.” – Jesse Livermore

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