Gapex Gut Feel Report 29th May 2017

Rates
USD / ZAR: 12,8475
EUR / ZAR: 14,3493
GBP / ZAR: 16,4844
ZAR / JPY: 8,6478
EUR / USD: 1,1162
GBP / USD: 1,2824
USD / JPY: 111,28
Ø ZAR volatile after NEC vote of no confidence
Ø Political turmoil a recipe for further down grades
Ø Zuma survives another vote of no confidence
Ø Rating agencies downgrade a reality
Once again #1 survives another vote of no confidence, enough support within the ranks meant the odds were stacked in his favour. The market will now await the decision by rating agencies as to what their decision will be on a further downgrade. I think we will be downgraded as the continuous looting of funds out of SOE’s is not abating and Government is not cutting back on spending. While the political future is in turmoil this surely will give agencies fuel to further downgrade. Pres Zuma’s threatening attitude towards the detractors must cause concern as he could possibly do another cabinet reshuffle, which will assist further state capture. More devastating to SA is the damage being done to the real economy through, lost investment, rating downgrades, mining sector in a mess and policy and political uncertainty. Talking to traders they are more convinced now to stay long of dollars. Trading range 12.80-13.40
Economic Data: 29th May
Ø N/A

USD/ZAR Hourly Candle

For me we have seen the ST low and I would buy USD at best and all the way down to the R12.30 level should we get there.

  ” I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of money at tops and bottoms.”PTJ

USD/ZAR Daily Close

This chart could still come lower but I would say that there are USD buying opportunities.

Buy at best all the way down to R12.30.

“The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.” – Jesse Livermore

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