Gapex Gut Feel Report 30th June 2017

Rates
USD / ZAR: 12,9825
EUR / ZAR: 14,8592
GBP / ZAR: 16,9137
ZAR / JPY: 8,6011
EUR / USD: 1,1438
GBP / USD: 1,3018
USD / JPY: 111,9
Ø ZAR under pressure and losing ground
Ø Investors getting nervous on situation in SA
Ø State capture has Tsunami of more revelations
ZAR loses some ground in day to day trading and more as market closed and New York entered the market, feeling now is the ANC policy conference, together with the Trillian/Eskom report and the intimidation of journalists, is causing lack of confidence internationally to wane and is unsettling international investors in SA. Market Internationally is looking for some credible plan to revive growth and confidence from the policy conference, but there is lots of scepticism within the ANC as it’s a meeting of the various factions. Risk sentiment is increasing as the dollar weakened the ZAR did the same and is being flagged by overseas investors as being vulnerable in terms of sentiment and fundamentals. State capture has an unending run, as more and more news emanates from the leaked emails, this being the Trillian debacle, which was denied by the Min Lyn Brown that no funds were paid to anyone for the Optimum coal mine purchase. Talking to traders they are staying small long. Trading range 12.90-13.50
Economic Data: 30th June
Ø SA Money Supply M3 y/y Ø US Personal Income/Spending
Ø SA Private sector Credit y/y Ø US Chicago Purchasing Manager
Ø SA Trade Balance/Budget Ø US PCE Core y/y/Deflator

USD/ZAR Hourly Candle

 

This charts current formation is at a critical level with R13.13 being huge and we would have to close over it on a daily basis.

I do still favour the upside but I would allow this chart to do its thing here and would again buy on confirmation of the break.

  

  “The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.”

Jesse Livermore

USD/ZAR Daily Close

 

With a daily close under R12.40 still the key, we have now reached its upside equivalent at R13.13.

I would wait for confirmation before adding or going long.

 

“All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis.” – Jesse Livermore

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