Gapex Gut Feel Report 4th July 2017

Rates
USD / ZAR: 13,19
EUR / ZAR: 15,0042
GBP / ZAR: 17,0822
ZAR / JPY: 8,5643
EUR / USD: 1,1367
GBP / USD: 1,2945
USD / JPY: 113,11
Ø ZAR loses its gains as continuous rhetoric from ANC conference
Ø Min of Fin releasing on Friday aims to bolster economy
Ø Offshore investors losing confidence in SA
Ø Market quiet ahead of US Independence Day
After a good showing in the last few months and weeks, the ZAR continues to weaken, firstly on dollar strength and the continuous rhetoric coming out of the ANC policy conference. The Zupta cadres calling for land expropriation without compensation, State ownership and control of the SARB, Raising ownership of mines to 51%. Most of the rhetoric came out of the mouths of ANCYL, ANCWL and supporters of Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma. Min Gigaba is due to unveil an action plan on structural changes to assist the economy and achieve growth rate of 6%. This seems a bit farfetched considering what has transpired since 1994. Even as this is some constructive response it is unlikely he will venture too far from the status quo. ZAR weakness is reflecting off shore risk and uncertainty as well as the political noise has compounded portfolio outflows and appeal to Internationals. Talking to traders the status quo remains, that being long of dollars. Trading range 13.00-13.50. Market quiet ahead of US Holiday – Independence Day today
Economic Data: 4th July
Ø No Data Today – US Holiday
US Independence Day

USD/ZAR Hourly Candle

I would buy into weakness with a stop under R12.90.

If R13.14 goes then we could be in for a rough ride.

We need R13.14 to hold today!!!!!

  

  “The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.”

Jesse Livermore

USD/ZAR Daily Close

With a daily close under R12.80 now the key level, we are quietly bullish until the R13.13 level is well and truly broken!

We need R13.14 to hold today!!!!!

“All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis.” – Jesse Livermore

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