Gapex Gut Feel Report 7th June 2017

Rates
USD / ZAR: 12,829
EUR / ZAR: 14,4593
GBP / ZAR: 16,5562
ZAR / JPY: 8,5286
EUR / USD: 1,1263
GBP / USD: 1,2896
USD / JPY: 109,58
Ø ZAR remains range bond for now
Ø GDP data released puts us in technical recession
Ø Possibility now of further downgrade by rating agencies
Ø Parliament must hold politicians to account

 

ZAR remains range bound even as SA enters a technical recession dealing a further blow to SA fiscal consolidation efforts. Jobs are difficult to secure; corporate profitability is under pressure and the unemployment rate just keeps getting worse. This must show a huge recession in confidence, trust, policy, leadership and good governance. It’s time that Parliament to hold politicians to account and if they don’t we will hand over sovereign control to those that control the coffers and maybe it has happened. It must now surely give the ratings agency food for a further downgrade. Once again, we have a SOE asking for a proposed tariff increase – amazingly Eskom. This cannot be permitted after yesterday’s figures, as this will affect the poorest of poor, not to mention that with all the looting of state coffers and the shortfall in Tax collections, will only force tax rates higher. Importers must take advantage of the great rates on offers across the board. Trading range 12.80-13.50

 

Economic Data: 7th June
Ø SA Gold Production y/y Ø SA Manufacturing Prod y/y
Ø SA Mining Production y/y
Ø SA Platinum Production y/y

USD/ZAR Hourly Candle

This chart has broken out and we are now looking to buy the  pullbacks done to the R12.66 level as we feel a move over R14.00 is imminent!

  “If I have positions going against me, I get right out; if they are going for me, I keep them… Risk control is the most important thing in trading. If you have a losing position that is making you uncomfortable, the solution is very simple: Get out, because you can always get back in.”

PTJ

USD/ZAR Daily Close

Overall, we are now bullish and we would build a long position here and down toward the R12.66 level.

We feel the possibility of a big move is imminent.

“The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.” – Jesse Livermore

 

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